To simultaneously identify and quantify the growth of macroeconomic risks and unanticipated financial shocks is the EWS’ purpose, especially when the early warning crisis signs might affect the Mexican, American, and Euro-Zone economies.

Particularly, the EWS aims to locate vulnerable aspects that could generate imminent alerts or crises. Then, the authorities, businessmen, academia, and society in general are notified, being prompted to implement any necessary action, intervention, or public policy in advance and/or in a timely manner.

IRCEM recognizes and evaluates underlying risks in the Mexican economy based on sectors and key macroeconomic and financial variables  — in a local and global economic context.

The IRCEM design shows selected variables that represent a transmission mechanism to the Mexican economy. These mechanisms are based on the performance of international markets: exports, international reserves, exchange rates, portfolio investment, remittances, external debt, imports, etc. Furthermore, strategic variables involved in the evolution of the internal market behavior, such as Unemployment Rate and the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE, in Spanish) of primary, secondary, and tertiary activities, internal savings, and solvency and liquidity of multiple banks are also selected.